CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-01T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27973/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500. Arrival signature likely combined with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream in DSCOVR data at L1 and is characterized by an amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total increasing from approx. 6 nT to 10 nT by 2023-12-04T05:10Z, and an increase in density. The solar wind speed increased from around 500 km/s to 520 km/s, reaching 550 km/s around 2023-12-04T09:00Z, but was already elevated from the coronal hole high speed stream influence.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T04:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T20:14Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 46.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 3.37 hour(s)
Difference: -15.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-12-04T01:08Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement